One of the things I found interesting recently was that the "South Sea" part of the name refers to the South Atlantic. I'd always inferred that the "South Sea" was the South Pacific.
I suppose the term "South Pacific" is ingrained in the language, so naturally my mind takes me there with "South Sea".
Anyway, just one of those long-held beliefs that turns out yo be false.
Precisely why one should not place much emphasis on the takes of people like Paul Graham and LeCun outside their specialization. They are as susceptible as anyone to be suckered into an ideology.
This article confirms that the common lore is broadly correct. Newton bought, stock goes up, Newton sells, realizes huge gains, stock goes up more, Newton buys again, stock crashes, Newton loses big.
For a broader story, including Newtons running of the Royal Mint, check out:
MONEY FOR NOTHING
THE SCIENTISTS, FRAUDSTERS, AND CORRUPT POLITICIANS WHO REINVENTED MONEY, PANICKED A NATION, AND MADE THE WORLD RICH
https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/thomas-levenson/m...
For an lengthy but amazing alternate-reality account of same (and much... much more), check out Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle
The audiobooks are pretty well narrated too, great for anyone who needs 160 hours of audio
For a more rigorous treatment, try Paul Wiltmott's (a famous quant) The Money Formula
https://www.amazon.com/Money-Formula-Finance-Science-Mathema...
The David Liss historical novel 'A Conspiracy of Paper' was pretty nice. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Conspiracy_of_Paper
Thanks - I'll check it out.
Shockingly, this is free on Audible!
Couple of previous discussions from 2018 and 2019
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16245284
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21007541
Thanks! Macroexpanded:
Isaac Newton's Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29032752 - Oct 2021 (1 comment)
Newton's Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21007541 - Sept 2019 (15 comments)
Newton’s Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16245284 - Jan 2018 (35 comments)
One of the things I found interesting recently was that the "South Sea" part of the name refers to the South Atlantic. I'd always inferred that the "South Sea" was the South Pacific.
I suppose the term "South Pacific" is ingrained in the language, so naturally my mind takes me there with "South Sea".
Anyway, just one of those long-held beliefs that turns out yo be false.
South Seas in popular culture typically does refer to the South Pacific and Polynesia though. I’d also say the South China Sea too.
But in Newton’s day yes, I think the colonial adventures were still very much focused on the Atlantic.
Doh, I always thought it as South China Sea!
I took this PDF and used Notebook LM (front-page HN the other day) to make a podcast out of this story to see how it did:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/hftl66dw3z8cg5ocjw9nx/newton-...
One of the smartest people who ever lived and he was still suckered, due to greed.
Precisely why one should not place much emphasis on the takes of people like Paul Graham and LeCun outside their specialization. They are as susceptible as anyone to be suckered into an ideology.
More about the whole thing:
England: South Sea Bubble - The Sharp Mind of John Blunt - Extra History - Part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1kndKWJKB8&list=PL931Bkj5KL...
This article confirms that the common lore is broadly correct. Newton bought, stock goes up, Newton sells, realizes huge gains, stock goes up more, Newton buys again, stock crashes, Newton loses big.
What goes up must come down. Newton of all people should have known.
Stock investment can drive economic and technical development, which only needs to stop with the heat death of the universe.
This particular stock was a massive bubble though.
Newton should've invested in broad index ETFs, shame he was born a few hundred years too early.
Should've invented crypto!
I don’t know - given that an object in motion remains in motion, he might have been more of a ‘line goes up’ HODLer…
Newton should have known to always leave a moon bag