I’ve been thinking for a while that the first real sign of China preparing for war with Taiwan is if it gets into smaller conflicts or proxy wars somewhere else.
They have near zero practical experience. They’ll need a few years of ironing out the logistical challenges with engaging in a real conflict, before they can take on Taiwan.
Like how Russia got themselves into smaller conflicts and various skirmishes around their borders and in Africa, before they started their full scale invasion of Ukraine.
The problem is that China haven’t had many good opportunities for getting into meaningful conflicts. Ukraine is a small chance for some practical experience for individuals. But it does nothing to get institutional knowledge with large scale logistics in a real conflict. What are they gonna do? Invade Vietnam again? I don’t think there’s any appetite for that.
That’s if China go the route of an actual invasion to begin with. I dont know anyone who fully understands Taiwan and China who thinks China will begin with an outright invasion. A blockade is much more likely, that’s what most Taiwanese I know really fear. Taiwan is very dependent on imports for food and energy. The question is just if USA will try to break the blockade (we’re gonna escort these ships with essential supplies, go ahead and attack our navy if you dare…), or if USA and India will implement their own blockade of fossil fuels coming from the Middle East as a response. China is dependent on imports of food/fertiliser/seeds and energy as well, after all. Though they’re better equipped to last a year or two than Taiwan… as long as there’s not too much corruption among those who are supposed to maintain Chinas fuel and food reserves.
> China is dependent on imports of food/fertiliser/seeds and energy as well, after all. Though they’re better equipped to last a year or two than Taiwan… as long as there’s not too much corruption among those who are supposed to maintain Chinas fuel and food reserves
Which Russia is major producer of. When it comes to resources a block that contains China, Russia and Kazakhstan is almost self sufficient.
I’ve been thinking for a while that the first real sign of China preparing for war with Taiwan is if it gets into smaller conflicts or proxy wars somewhere else.
They have near zero practical experience. They’ll need a few years of ironing out the logistical challenges with engaging in a real conflict, before they can take on Taiwan.
Like how Russia got themselves into smaller conflicts and various skirmishes around their borders and in Africa, before they started their full scale invasion of Ukraine.
The problem is that China haven’t had many good opportunities for getting into meaningful conflicts. Ukraine is a small chance for some practical experience for individuals. But it does nothing to get institutional knowledge with large scale logistics in a real conflict. What are they gonna do? Invade Vietnam again? I don’t think there’s any appetite for that.
That’s if China go the route of an actual invasion to begin with. I dont know anyone who fully understands Taiwan and China who thinks China will begin with an outright invasion. A blockade is much more likely, that’s what most Taiwanese I know really fear. Taiwan is very dependent on imports for food and energy. The question is just if USA will try to break the blockade (we’re gonna escort these ships with essential supplies, go ahead and attack our navy if you dare…), or if USA and India will implement their own blockade of fossil fuels coming from the Middle East as a response. China is dependent on imports of food/fertiliser/seeds and energy as well, after all. Though they’re better equipped to last a year or two than Taiwan… as long as there’s not too much corruption among those who are supposed to maintain Chinas fuel and food reserves.
> China is dependent on imports of food/fertiliser/seeds and energy as well, after all. Though they’re better equipped to last a year or two than Taiwan… as long as there’s not too much corruption among those who are supposed to maintain Chinas fuel and food reserves
Which Russia is major producer of. When it comes to resources a block that contains China, Russia and Kazakhstan is almost self sufficient.